Oil Production to Smash Records in 2026: 1 Million Barrels Per Day on the Horizon, But Who Really Benefits?
As the government celebrates a “New Year of Prosperity,” the latest data reveals a staggering reality: Guyana is pumping more oil than ever before, yet the average citizen is seeing less of the wealth.
According to new production forecasts, crude oil output in Guyana has increased by an estimated ten-fold from 2020 to 2025, averaging 750,000 barrels per day (b/d) last year alone. But 2026 promises an even more aggressive expansion, with the start-up of the colossal Uaru project expected to push the country toward the historic milestone of 1.0 million barrels per day by 2027.
The Yellowtail Surge
The explosion in production is being driven by the Stabroek Block, operated by the consortium of ExxonMobil, Hess, and CNOOC. Reports confirm that Exxon’s Yellowtail project officially reached full production capacity late last year, driving national output to more than 900,000 b/d on average in November 2025.
While the government touts these numbers as a victory, critics point out that the infrastructure fueling this boom—massive FPSO vessels similar to those used in Brazil—operates entirely offshore, creating an economy that is disconnected from the daily struggles of Guyanese on the coast.
2026 Forecast: The Uaru Factor
The pace isn’t slowing down. The forecast for 2026 indicates that crude oil production growth will average 140,000 b/d, up from the 130,000 b/d growth seen in 2025.
The key driver for this year will be the Uaru project, the next major FPSO development slated to come online. Uaru is expected to add an additional 250,000 b/d of supply to the market. With this addition, Guyana is rapidly transforming into a global energy powerhouse, surpassing traditional producers.
Pivoting to Asia
Where is this oil going? The trade routes are shifting. After initially shipping crude primarily to the Americas and Europe, Guyana is increasingly exporting its “black gold” to Asian markets. This pivot meets the demand previously served by other exporting countries, further cementing Exxon’s global strategy.
The Wealth Gap Widens
However, as we stare down the barrel of 1 million b/d by 2027, the question on the streets of Georgetown remains: Where is the money?
With production skyrocketing ten-fold since 2020, the disconnect between the GDP and the standard of living has never been starker. While ExxonMobil and its partners streamline their extraction and export logistics to Asia, Guyanese at home are facing a 2026 with no cash grants, rising inflation, and a government accused of hoarding the windfall for “infrastructure projects” that benefit a select few.
As the FPSOs churn offshore, generating billions in revenue, the promise of the “Dubai of the Caribbean” feels increasingly like a mirage for the working class.